posted 05-06-2003 11:37 PM
Dearest gripers, lemon squeezers, geral cranks and especially, potential VW owners:This is a LONG post. If you are serious about knowing the statistical reality about current VWs and have 5 minutes to spare, please read on. If you want to flame me for A) not bashing VW sufficently or B) not understanding how "awesome" these cars are, well don't bother. I welcome discussion, debate, etc.
LEMONS
FACT: About one in one thousand VWs and Audis are certified for lemon claims. VW sold 338,000 vehicles in the US in 2002. Odds are, 338 of them will end up in a lemon claim.
Several state government post exhaustive reports on their web sites about lemon law claims. I have read 2001 annual reports for New York, Hawaii and Texas and a 10 year report for New Jersey (1989-1999)
Here are some real numbers
In New Jersey, from 1989-1998 one in every 993 VWs/Audis registered had a comlaint serious to be heard as a lemon case.
This compares to one in every 1,037 Fords, one in 1,406 for GM.
Toyota/Lexus (oh aren't they wonderful!) had a ten year lemon rate of 1 per 4,911, while Chrysler sucked big time at 1 in 392 registrations.
With 2.7% of the market, VW/Audi has 3% of the lemons
Turning just to 2001, things are a bit different:
In Texas in 2001 VWs held 1.3% of the total vehicle market (cars, trucks, Winnebagos, etc). Yet they produced 2.97% of all lemon complaints and resulted in 6% of all buy backs or vehicle replacements.
In New York state VWs/Audis represented just 1% of lemon cases, or 3 of 298, and 1.6% of all buybacks and replacements since 1987. Similar figures apply in Florida & Hawaii.
Here in Canada we don't have lemon laws, but consumers can go through the Canadian Automotive Vehicle Arbitration Program (CAMVAP) for a similar type of recourse against bad vehicles. In 2001 VWs represented 2.2% of complaints and 2.4% of awards, with one buyback for all of Canada.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? My reading of the data suggests that VWs become certified lemon cases at just slightly higher than their indicence in the market place. They do way better than Chrysler, a bit worse than GM, and WAY worse than Honda, Toyota and Subaru.
CONCLUSION: VW = FORD
CHRONIC RELIABILITY PROBLEMS
Besides certified lemons, people on this site complain of many different things going wrong on the same car, making a lemon case impossible and a migraine inevitable.
THE FACTS
In a recent, confidential survey of Canadian automobile dealers, VW dealers gave their product the lowest relaibility rating of all vehicles
Looking at the NHSTA complaints database there are 184 complaints on file for the 2002 Jetta and a whopping 296 (!!!) for the 2002 Passat. Compare this to 175 for the 2002 Ford Focus, 34 for the 2002 Corolla, and only 37 for the oft-maligned Hyundai Elantra.
Over on the VWvortex, which contrary to accepted wisdom here, actually does have some thinking members who are not blnded by VW dazzle, the complants threads go on and on (sorry, this is more anectdotal evidence than stats) - transmission problems, MAF failures, electrical gremlins, stuff falling off, etc. About once a week there is a dedicated VW owner posting "I've had enough, I'm bailing" and many people are actually warned not to buy VWs because of the reliability issue.
Reliability ratings have been downgraded at Consumers Reports, and the latest JD Power initial quality figures put VW 10 points below the industry average.
Yet remarkably, 90% of Canadian VW/Audi owners say , they would purchase the same vehicle again.
CONCLUSION: I think Mr. Up-the-River knows more about cars than I do, and while he may get a bit cranky about how ALL VWs are now a POS, he has a point. The facts show - these cars break down way more than average- heck they break down as much as Fords
RESALE VALUE
I was interested in seeing what kind of a hit people are taking when unloading these beautiful losers, so I looked at resale prices in Toronto and Chicago (love that Auto Trader eh?) Here's a comparison of
a) Jetta GLS, 2.0 manual
b) Toyota Corolla CE (the mythical reasle value champ)
c) Ford Taurus SE (the chump?)
These are typical prices, offered at major dealers. I'll do US first, then Canada. The percentage figure in brackets is the cost of the used car as a percentage of MRSP for a 2003 model
CHICAGO
Jetta GLS
1996 - $6,000 (32%)
1998 - $8,500 (45%)
2000 - $14,000 (74%)
2003 - $18,800 (MRSP)
Toyota Corolla
1996 - $6,000 (39%)
1998 - $8,000 (53%)
2000 - $10,000 (66%)
2003 - $15,200 (MRSP)
Ford Taurus
1996 - $4,500 (22%)
1998 - $6,000 (29%)
2000 - $10,000 (50%)
2003 - $20,700 (MRSP)
TORONTO (Canadian dollar = 71 cents US)
Jetta GLS
1996 - $9,000 (38%)
1998 - $12,000 (50%)
2000 - $17,500 (73%)
2003 - $24,000 (MRSP)
Toyota Corolla
1996 - $9,000 (45%)
1998 - $11,500 (58%)
2000 - $16,000 (80%)
2003 - $20,000 (MRSP)
Ford Taurus
1996 - $6,000 (23%)
1998 - $8,000 (30%)
2000 - $14,000 (53%)
2003 - $26,600 (MRSP)
WHAT DOES IT MEAN: Unless the sky falls (and you guys actually get a class action suit going) you can expect to be able to unload your Jetta for about a 7 or 8% worse depreciation hit than if you owned a Corolla, AND it will hold its value better than a Taurus (ok, no big achievement there).
CONCLUSION: Thank GOD that VW does not = FORD
DEALER NETWORK & VW CORPORATE
I previously mentioned the Canadian auto dealers survey, where VW dealers essentially tore a strip off of VW Father-Corp. Well, evidence about dealer quality and service is anectdotal at best, but her is what I have seen here and in many many posts on the vortex
1. A TON of people really, really hate their dealers. There is a lack of product knowledge, arrogance, and an inability to properly fix cars.
2. The dealers hate VW. VWoA is more arrogant than the dealers, and will not go any distance at all to make things right.
3. Some people have good dealer stories to tell. It seems in the larger urban centres the good dealers get known and people have a choice
CONCLUSIONS: If you live in a rural area, think long and hard about buying a VW. Keep thinking about it while you write check for that Civic or Sunfire, then think about some more when your Civic keeps running.
If you live in the big city and you have to have a VW (hey, I do, and I did, and I don't yet regret it) sign up for the Vortex and log on to your regional board. There is a very bad signal to noise ratio on the Tex, but if you ask for dealer recommendations in your area, you WILL get them. You will be able to meet people who have bought from that dealership and will give you the straight goods on their sales & service.
NOW I AM DONE: WHITHER THE VW???
What I have learned from this exercise is
A) these cars are only sometimes as bad as myvwlemon would have you believe, but when they are bad, they are really, really bad.
B) VW corporate and huge chunks of the VW dealer network in North America is rotten, rotten to the core.
C) People bought into VW thinking they were a cool little company with fun "quirky" cars when in fact they are a monsterously huge and farily shabby corporation
D) VW = Ford (not Yugo, with respect to our departed friend). All in all that is not the worst thing in the world.
E) Everybody on this site bought a VW, so they must have something going for them
If people pursue their lemon claims I sincerely wish you the best luck. If a large group of people pursue a class action suit, well I wish you luck on that too, even though you will $crew my resale value.
I will check back on this post, but I think it's bye bye for this site for me for awhile.